NBA best bets: 5 player prop picks for Thu. 5/9 action

Cavaliers vs. Celtics

Thursday, May 9, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN
Darius Garland Over 15.5 Points (DraftKings)

By Chris Baker

Darius Garland has been brutal this entire postseason, but this is a spot worth holding your nose and betting on him because of his combination of usage and playing time. He played 36 minutes in Game 1 and attempted 15 shots but finished with 14 points while going 2/8 from the 3-point line. Garland also could have played a few more minutes if that game wasn’t a blowout.

It’s pretty clear J.B. Bickerstaff isn’t going to bench him, so his minutes should be relatively safe. Garland should clear this number just off of the sheer amount of ball-handling opportunity he will continue to receive. Trust Garland to clear 15.5 points and look into some of his alt lines as well.

Pick: Darius Garland Over 15.5 Points

Cavaliers vs. Celtics

Thursday, May 9, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN
Al Horford Under 0.5 Blocks (BetRivers)

By Maltman

Al Horford has been an elite defender throughout his career, but he has never been an elite shot-blocker. In the playoffs, he has often ramped it up to contest more shots and get more blocks. With the increase in minutes, you'd expect him to have an increase in blocked shots as well.

However, this just hasn't been the case. Horford has only blocked one shot total in the playoffs over six games. His primary matchup is Evan Mobley, who doesn't take a ton of shots and isn't blocked a lot. He also has to stay home on him a lot. In now four games against the Cavs between the regular season and the playoffs, Horford has one total blocked shot.

Cleveland settled for a ton of jump shots in Game 1, only taking 21% of their shots at the rim, the most common location for a blocked shot. At these long odds, this would be decent value during the regular season, where Horford only blocked a shot in 56% of games. I'm betting .35u for Horford under 0.5 blocks at +160 on DraftKings (bet down to +150).

Pick: Al Horford Under 0.5 Blocks +160

Mavericks vs. Thunder

Thursday, May 9, 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Daniel Gafford Over 19.5 PRA (DraftKings)

By Joe Dellera

Gafford smashed this line of 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists in Game 1 with 16 points, 11 rebounds and one assist in 27 minutes. In Game 2, Dallas should still need the rebounding and interior offense he provides, so he should continue to find success.

When Gafford has played 20 or more minutes, he has exceeded this line in 64% of games this season. In four games against Chet Holmgren, he has crushed this line with 15.8 points, 11 rebounds and 0.75 assists per game. In the three games with the Mavericks, he’s nearly cleared this on points alone with 19, 19 and 16 points in the three games.

Doncic clearly did not look 100% last game and may be less active on the glass. Couple that with Gafford’s offensive ability, and I expect him to smash again.

I like Gafford to exceed 19.5 PRA, and he’s also a good play to be the game’s leading rebounder (+380 at FanDuel).

Pick: Daniel Gafford Over 19.5 PRA

Mavericks vs. Thunder

Thursday, May 9, 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Luka Doncic Over 7.5 First Quarter Points (DraftKings)

By Maltman

This is one of my favorite markets, and we cashed the under a lot early this season. During the regular season, Luka Doncic started the season resting more in the first quarter and then ended up finishing the season playing almost the entire first quarter. He averaged 9.8 points per first quarter during the regular season.

In the playoffs, he has been hurt, and his scoring average has dropped from 33.9 to 28.3 points per game. Books dropped his first-quarter points by the same amount proportionally. However, Doncic surprisingly is still averaging 9.3 points per first quarter in the playoffs and has had eight or more points in six of seven games. The proportion of his points in the first quarter has risen from 29% during the regular season to 33% in the playoffs.

What's the reason? Doncic comes out with more energy, his injury feels better, and he is ready to go. As the game goes on, he gets more worn down and plays worse, and he consequently becomes less effective and less aggressive. Yet in the first quarter, there's more of old Doncic. I'm betting .4u on him to score over 7.5 points in the first quarter at +102 on DraftKings (would bet down to -120). I would pass on it at over 8.5 points.

As a bonus bet on DraftKings, you can parlay his first-quarter points with his full-game points. I'm betting .1u on a parlay of Doncic 7+ 1st quarter points, under 30.5 points and Thunder to win at +460 (would bet down to +400).

Pick: Luka Doncic Over 7.5 First Quarter Points +102

Mavericks vs. Thunder

Thursday, May 9, 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
P.J. Washington Over 11.5 Points (DraftKings)

By Chris Baker

I’m running this back despite P.J. Washington scoring just 10 points in Game 1. The thesis behind this bet on Tuesday was the reality that Washington is taking a career high 23% of his shot attempts from the corner 3.

The Thunder rank dead last in Corner 3-point Attempt Rate Allowed this season, and that played out in Game 1 as they allowed 10 corner 3s to the Mavs. Washington went 2/3 on 3s and finished 4/7 from the field averaging 1.429 points per shot attempt. The only reason he went under was foul trouble as he played just 26 minutes due to his consistent foul trouble and the game being a blowout as starters were pulled with five minutes left.

Washington should be back near 36 minutes here in Game 2, and I like him to capitalize on his opportunity.

Pick: P.J. Washington Over 11.5 Points