Why Mavericks will upset Thunder in 2024 Western Conference Semifinals

The Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder will go head-to-head in the Western Conference Semifinals. Oklahoma City led the season series against Dallas 3-1. Additionally, the Thunder finished with the best record in the Western Conference while the Mavs clinched the No. 5 seed. So is there reason to believe that the Mavericks can upset the Thunder in the second-round of the NBA playoffs?

Absolutely.

The Mavericks are fresh off a hard-fought series against the Los Angeles Clippers. LA battled but Dallas won the series in six games.

The Thunder cruised to a series victory over the New Orleans Pelicans in the first-round. However, this Dallas team will present a legitimate challenge for Oklahoma City.

There are a number of reasons why the Mavs can upset the Thunder. Let’s take a look at four of those reasons.

Stats via StatMuse:

Playoff experience

Experience is crucial. Oklahoma City features no shortage of star-power but they have not seen much postseason action.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has appeared in just 17 playoff games. Six of those came with the Clippers in 2018-19.

Chet Holmgren, a rookie, obviously had not played in any playoff games before this year’s postseason. Players such as Jalen Williams and Josh Giddey are also making their playoff debuts this year.

Meanwhile, Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic have combined for 114 playoff games played heading into the Thunder series. Tim Hardaway Jr., Daniel Gafford, Derrick Jones Jr., Dante Exum, and Markieff Morris are among the other Mavericks with playoff experience.

The experience goes beyond the players, though. Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault has done a tremendous job this year. In fact, he was even selected as the NBA Coach of the Year.

Daigneault is also making his NBA playoff coaching debut this year, however.

On the other hand, Jason Kidd has coached in 48 playoff games. 24 of those games have come with the Mavericks.

Kidd, who signed a multi-year contract extension with the Mavs on Monday, is going to be prepared for the big moment decisions.

Kyrie Irving

Kyrie Irving gets a reason of his own. Luka Doncic even admitted that Irving will be a primary difference-maker before the playoffs. Doncic was asked what is different about this Mavericks team, and he said the Mavs now have Kyrie on the roster.

Irving has been phenomenal during the playoffs so far. He is averaging 26.5 points per game on 51.4 percent field goal and 44.9 percent three-point shooting. Kyrie is also recording 5.7 rebounds and 4.7 assists per outing.

Irving also offers important leadership. We discussed how crucial experience will be in this upcoming series. Irving has 80 games of playoff experience, so he will certainly be ready to battle Oklahoma City.

Between his elite ability on the floor and his veteran leadership, Kyrie will unquestionably make a huge difference in the series.

Mavericks’ improved defense

Dallas’ defense has improved since the trade deadline. Acquiring Daniel Gafford and PJ Washington helped to “change the culture,” as Jason Kidd previously said.

For the most part, Dallas’ defense performed well against Los Angeles in the first-round. The Clippers had a couple of games where they could not miss from deep, but overall it was a steady defensive effort by the Mavs.

The Mavericks held the Clippers to 101 points or less in four of the six games. If they can continue to play an aggressive but still controlled brand of defense, the Thunder will have trouble finding the bottom of the net.

Mavericks’ clutch record

Finally, the Mavericks’ clutch performance will play a pivotal role in this Western Conference matchup.

Dallas featured the second-best clutch record in the NBA during the regular season, per NBA.com. The Mavs’ 23-9 clutch record only trailed the Los Angeles Lakers, who were 24-9 in such games.

Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic both tend to play their best basketball in tight games. It is no coincidence that two of the best clutch players happen to play for one of the best clutch teams in the entire league.

It is worth noting that the Thunder held the fifth best clutch record during the 2023-24 campaign. So it isn’t as if Oklahoma City backs down in the big moments.

Still, the Mavs hold the advantage in the category. The series is going to be competitive throughout, so Dallas will need to lean on their ability to win close games.